Delusional Ayatollah, oblivious to the truth of his own existence

Ayatollah saved from gruesome end, yet the tunnel ahead for his rule stays pitch black.

For someone who was saved from an ugly death, Ali Khamenei, the so-called Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic--who is constantly moving from one location--I prefer to call it hole--to another to stay alive—faces political and personal decline, becoming increasingly delusional about his own existence.

His delusion in recent days led to even more empty rhetoric and threats from him than before. One could argue, however, that his tone, full of hollow threats and fear, is a reaction to responses he and his regime received from the President Trump administration. 

Leaked information—both from President Trump and from sources in the Middle East—indicates that the Ayatollah authorised his emissaries, namely his so-called President Pezeshkian (bearing in mind that he is an appointed president, as there is no such thing as a free, democratic election in Iran under its so-called constitution) and his Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, to send a message to the Trump administration proposing direct talks to resolve the differences between the two sides.

The Ayatollah, however, emerged from hiding to deny these reports, calling them a “pure lie” and asserting that “such a government (the United States) is not worthy of being approached or cooperated with by a government like the Islamic Republic.” This episode illustrates two points I have previously noted in this space: first, a new Middle East is emerging; and second, such a Middle East cannot include a religiously ruled state—a Shiite theocracy—particularly not the largest and most influential one in the region, Iran.

When the issue of nearly 500 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, only 30% away from weapons-grade, is added to President Trump’s major demands, including zero uranium enrichment, the dismantling of ballistic and long-range missile programs, and the cessation of support for Shiite proxy groups throughout the Middle East; it should have Shaked the complacent Ayatollah out of his hiding place. This is a matter over which no one can afford to harbor any illusions—not even the so‑called “big three” Europeans (the UK, France and Germany). 

This quantity of uranium must be located and secured by any means and at any cost. The Ayatollah, his regime, and his cronies now face the stark reality of their situation, with no light visible at the end of the tunnel in which they find themselves.

As I have stated before, there is no possible future for him or his dwindling circle, including what remains of his so-called Shiite proxies across the region. He must come to terms with the reality that there is no leadership role left for him in Iran—nor for anyone of his ilk—to assume or exercise.

Say hello to New Middle East. 

What the Ayatollah and his regime have failed to realise so far—something I have highlighted before—is that for more than three decades, and indeed for the entire 46 years since the inception of the Islamic Republic in Iran, they have never been political statesmen or strategic geniuses. Rather, they were simply allowed to exist within the Old Middle East, a region where no one sought to seriously challenge them for decades at a time. Their fundamental miscalculation—the belief that they could control, survive, or outmaneuver, as they perceived, even three successive U.S. presidents—was profoundly misguided. This is further illustrated by the rapid dismantling of whatever deterrent forces they believed they possessed—something they assumed would endure—within a mere two years, and at a cost of trillions of dollars to the people of Iran and their country, the full impact of which will only be calculated in the future.

One can only hope that they have now recognised this reality in the aftermath of the 12-day conflict, the elimination of their top military generals, and the Ayatollah’s own survival from what many have described as a “disgraceful death”—an outcome that remains very much on the table.