This Time Must Not Be Lost

It was only last week that I stated here  the Islamic Republic has only two choices, with no other exit ramp available to it.

Now, the Iranian people have entered their third day of nationwide uprising against the theocratic regime ruled by a delusional Ayatollah, one who himself admitted more than 36 years ago that “one must cry for a nation, even if one considers me as Supreme Leader,” said Ali Khamenei then.

The people of Iran are now on the streets for the third consecutive day, chanting “Death to the dictator”—Ali Khamenei—and his cronies. This regime has, together, misappropriated and embezzled trillions of dollars belonging to the Iranian people and diverted those resources to its proxy terrorist organisations across the Middle East and beyond.

They have brought the country’s economy to its knees, believing that by spending trillions of dollars on terrorism, nuclear capability, enrichment moving towards weaponisation, and ballistic missile programs, they could dominate the Middle East and beyond, cementing their so-called Shiite Islamic state until the return of their Twelfth Imam from hiding.

Meanwhile, the country has run out of water, electricity, gas, and clean air. The national currency has collapsed. Within weeks, the Iranian rial fell to a historic low of approximately 1,450,000 rials to one US dollar. This was the final straw for a population already devastated economically, where tens of millions of Iranians can no longer afford meat, chicken, rice, or even basic daily necessities.

Having said all this, it must be acknowledged that this is not the first time the Iranian people have taken to the streets in their millions. They rose up in 2009, 2019, and 2022, only to be brutally crushed, scores killed, thousands arrested, tortured, and sentenced to lengthy imprisonment. Time and again, they have been beaten, shot, blinded, arrested, tortured, killed under torture, forcibly disappeared, and later found in rivers, dams, or remote areas. This has occurred because the Ayatollah’s regime has done one thing right. They acted in a calculated and systematic manner to eliminate all domestic leadership alternatives. They placed all political figures under house arrest and/or in prison or neutralised.

This strategy has left the people of Iran—and indeed the world—with almost no visible domestic alternative. Almost, because Iran still has no shortage of capable individuals: lawyers, political activists, university students—each of whom could become a political leader.

During the recent twelve-day war, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered strikes on the notorious Evin Prison and publicly called on Iranians to take to the streets, seemingly in the hope that political prisoners and potential leaders would emerge and lead the people to overthrow the Islamic Republic. In my view, this idea was premature and insufficiently grounded in the lived reality of the regime’s methods. As expected, the regime’s immediate response was to remove political prisoners and potential leaders from Evin and hide them elsewhere.

This time, the world needs to do much better and fast.