Purported US Negotiations with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps

There appear to be purported negotiations between the Trump administration and certain remaining IRGC figures, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reportedly taking place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

I described it as purported because political negotiations are ordinarily conducted between parties of recognised diplomatic standing and equivalence. In this instance, a democratically elected representative of the United States, acting on behalf of the American people, is said to be engaging with IRGC figures who do not hold any legitimate mandate from the Iranian people and their country--refer to tens of millions of Iranians on streets of all Iranian cities protesting against the Islamic Republic--I call them the invaders of their country--prior to the massacre of 8 and 9 January this year.  

Both the Trump administration and observers in Iran and internationally are aware of the relevant factual context. As President Trump stated, these people going to Islam Abad, Pakistan, are only alive to see if we can achieve our objectives.

"The Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the world by using internation waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate", President Trump said.

Returning to the reality on the ground, as I previously predicted in this space before the current conflict began:

President Trump and his administration, Israel, a reconfigured Middle East, and the international community more broadly, cannot afford to allow the IRGC and its associated militant networks across the region to continue holding Iran and its people, resources, and future hostage.

That is a given.

Nothing short of a fundamental structural change, what President Trump has referred to as an already  “changed regime”, would suffice, whether achieved through military deployment, including securing strategic points such as the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island, or elsewhere, in order to provide the Iranian people with a viable alternative.

While there may be temporary signals or indications of compromise by the Trump administration, driven in part by oil, gas, and the broader economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz, such signals are not necessarily inconsistent with the underlying reality on the ground in Iran and the wider Middle East.

Meanwhile, figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and remaining IRGC leadership elements may believe they are engaged in negotiations with the United States on an equal footing with President Trump and his administration. However, they are profoundly mistaken. Any engagement from Vice President Vance and his team would, in substance, reflect the following positions:

  • Open the Strait of Hormuz, or it will be opened by other means
  • Deliver all approximately 400kg of 60% enriched uranium
  • Dismantle all centrifuges and reduce enrichment capability to zero
  • Abandon all long-range ballistic missile programs
  • Terminate all support for proxy militant networks in the region
  • Open prison doors and release all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience, though this position may remain subject to flexibility at this stage. 

This aligns with what I previously predicted in this space: the end of the system known as the Islamic Republic in Iran, or what is commonly referred to as “regime change,” which President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have both alluded to from the beginning of the campaign.

This also, in their framing, provides the people of Iran, as President Trump stated at the outset of the military campaign, an opportunity to return to the streets and take back control of their country.

However, the key question that remains unresolved is not whether change will occur, but rather who will lead the transition, and how a subsequent referendum would be structured to allow the people to endorse a new system of governance, supported by a new constitution ensuring full-fledged democracy and secularism.

I guess we all need to wait for a few days and come back here and watch this space. 

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