The earthquake in Damascus was profoundly felt in Tehran, shaking the fragile confidence of the Ayatollah and his regime

 

The recent toppling of Bashar al-Assad from power and his subsequent escape to Russia has left the Ayatollah and his cronies trapped between a rock and a hard place, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

For now, the Ayatollah and his cronies remain entrenched in power in Iran, steering their regime into a dark corner with no light at the end of the tunnel.

Decades of corruption, economic mismanagement, and brutal suppression of dissent have plunged Iran into a state of despair. This stagnation is now further highlighted by the consequences of their foreign policy adventures, which continue to destabilise the region and isolate the Iranian people from the global community.

Recent events have exposed the fragility of the Ayatollah’s proxies and alliances across the Middle East. The destructive actions of Hamas in Gaza, followed closely by Hezbollah's escalations in Lebanon, have not only failed to achieve their objectives but have also drawn devastating responses that left civilian populations suffering the consequences. Meanwhile, Tehran's direct support for these groups has only intensified international scrutiny and further alienated Iran from the global stage.

The termination of leaders in Gaza, Lebanon, and Tehran to perpetuate conflict has not only devastated their own regions but has also revealed their inability to sustain their ideological grip. Hezbollah’s provocations on Israel’s northern borders have triggered a backlash, weakening its influence within Lebanon, a country already reeling from political and economic collapse. In Gaza, Hamas leadership faces mounting pressure as its reckless strategies result in massive destruction and mounting civilian casualties, leaving Palestinians more vulnerable than ever.

And now in Syria, the recent toppling of Bashar al-Assad from power, once propped up by Iran's Quds Force and Russian military intervention, and his escape to Russia has sent a strong and positive signal to the people of Iran. Assad’s downfall symbolises the fragility of authoritarian regimes propped up by the Ayatollah’s policies and has further emboldened Iranians yearning for change. The ripple effects of this development have left the Islamic Republic increasingly anxious, as their own legitimacy teeters on the edge.

Another devastatingly wrong political judgment was the Mullahs' decision to play a forward role in Putin's team against Ukraine, which ultimately tipped the scale against them in Tehran. Watch this space.

As Iran continuance of investing resources to prop up Assad, its own citizens face worsening economic conditions, widespread unemployment, and a lack of basic necessities, deepening domestic unrest.

The Ayatollah’s regional ambitions, embodied by his support for proxy militias and authoritarian leaders, have reached a tipping point. As Iran pours billions into these futile conflicts, its people are left to endure inflation, water and power shortages, and a collapsing healthcare system. The protests that erupted in recent years, from the ‘Woman, Life, Freedom’ movement to labor strikes across major industries, reveal an emboldened populace unwilling to tolerate the regime’s priorities any longer.

The combination of external failures and internal dissent signals a regime at odds with the inevitable tide of change. As the walls close in on its cronies, Tehran’s leadership is finding itself increasingly isolated, with no sustainable strategy for domestic stability or regional dominance. What lies ahead is not merely a corner with no light, but the looming possibility of a collapse—an outcome that their decades of oppression and mismanagement have all but ensured.

Perhaps more importantly, the trumpet now echoes with resounding defensive tones, signaling a shift in the balance of power and a rallying cry for those seeking to challenge oppressive regimes. Its call reverberates with strength and determination, a prelude to significant change on the horizon.

The Ayatollah and his cronies are now more concerned than ever about the return of Donald Trump to the White House on 20th January. Trump threatens to bring a hardline approach to U.S.-Iran relations, including renewed sanctions and a no-compromise stance on the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Islamic Republic, desperate to resurrect the nuclear deal, now finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position with virtually no leverage left.

Iran’s regional influence, once bolstered by Assad’s regime, Hezbollah, and Hamas, is unraveling. Assad’s retreat to Moscow signals the collapse of one of Tehran’s strongest allies in the region, while Hezbollah and Hamas face growing internal and external challenges. Without Assad as a key partner, the Islamic Republic’s ability to maintain its foothold in Syria and project power throughout the region has been significantly diminished.

At home, this turn of events has reinvigorated the Iranian people, who have long resisted the regime’s oppressive rule. Assad’s ouster serves as a reminder that no regime, no matter how entrenched, is immune to collapse. For the Ayatollah and his inner circle, it represents a stark warning of what could await them should their grip on power falter further.

With Trump’s return to power looming and the Ayatollah’s regional proxies weakening, the Islamic Republic’s hope of reviving the JCPOA now appears desperate and far-fetched. Unlike previous negotiations, Tehran approaches the table with almost no leverage. The regime’s economic lifeline has been eroded by years of sanctions and internal mismanagement, while its credibility has been shattered by widespread protests and international condemnation of its human rights abuses.

The Ayatollah’s cronies face an uphill battle to salvage their position on both the domestic and international fronts. The demise of Assad, combined with growing pressure from the West, signals a turning point that could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic’s oppressive regime.