2021 is not 2015 - A New Time Demands New Measures
He told the Chairman of the Senate Committee and the members that he and president Biden believe that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the JCPOA) was working previously. By that he meant prior to 2018 when former president Trump existed the agreement. And that the agreement put Iran, Caliphate of Islamic State of Iran (the CISI) "on a breakaway time of beyond a year" to build a nuclear bomb in comparison of now being "on a breakaway of three to four months".
He further said that president Biden administration is happy to rejoin the JCPOA. However, he subjected that intention for the CISI to first taking positive steps toward honouring his commitments under the JCPOA. That is for the CISI to a) reverse the level of his uranium enrichment back to 3.67%, prior to 2018 under the JCPOA, from 20% currently b) reduce back the number of his centrifuges and dismantling all new generation centrifuges c) reduce the stockpile of enriched uranium of 3.67% to "under 300 kilograms".
On the other side, the CISI demands for president Biden administration to first lift all sanctions imposed by the previous administration for what in return, it is not clear. Perhaps for the CISI to go back to the JCPOA agreement by which his five years "heavy arms embargo" has now gone and his eight years "ballistic missile restrictions" ends in three years time. It can be argued that the CISI has already breached the latter restrictions by far. The CISI, by his spokesperson, you can call it president if you wish, has always maintained that "missiles and regional activities" are non-negotiable. These were perhaps the parts/issues of the agreement that somewhat overlooked by president Biden's former boss', president Obama administration, causing former president Trump to call the agreement "Worst, horrible, laughable".
Former president Trump was right. He was after all a successful businessman who certainly understood good deals and/or bad ones prior to come to the White House. He also proved later that he understood politically, as the US president, how serious and dangerous the issues of ballistic missiles and adverse regional activities, whether on land or at sea, of the CISI are to the peace and stability of the region and the world. He had no choice but to put his knee on the CISI's feeble neck. It worked. But the CISI calculated that if he resists by, for example, killing 1500 young Iranians on streets or imprison whoever voice a protest over an unbearable social or political life they live under the CISI rule, or threatening and/or attacking (by his proxies) the neighbouring countries, Saudi Arabia, or hijack or mine commercial ships over international waters or at ports, a new administration will come and lend them the respite they desperately counting on.
Mr Blinken displayed an astute understanding of all these issues and concerns before the committee. He assured the Chairman and the Senate committee members that he fully understands their concerns and those of the US regional allies, read all Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and Israel. Aside from the breaches of the JCPOA agreement above, the major ones he referred to were the CISI's ballistic missiles capability and destabilisation of the region. He indicated that president Biden administration intends to return to the JCPOA. But he also told the committee that the intention is to use their return to the JCPOA as a "platform" to discuss and include into the JCPOA, can only be assumed a new agreement, these further issues and put them in a more "strong and long-term" binding agreement. That in itself is a big ask and condition.
That is because the CISI, on the other hand, asks for the US to first lift all sanctions president Trump imposed on it, and that missiles and regional activities are non-negotiable. Which leaves, it seems, Mr Blinken, president Biden and the Senators, including the Chairman of the Senate committee, on the same page as to a material risk involved in dealing with the CISI. The good thing is, however, that they are showing a good understand of the CISI's position toward the peace and security of the region or beyond if his political and financial interest are not met. Basically the US government faces with the demands of the CISI to leave him alone to run Iran, Islamic State of Shiite Caliphate, like:
- his Islamic brother, Abu Bakr Al-Baghadi of the ISIS in Raqqa, Syria;
- imprison, torture and kill as many as Iranians who dare to voice protest against his theoretical rule;
- embezzle freely, like the past 42 years, Iran's money belong to her people and throw as much as he likes at terrorists all around the region and the world, just in order to have a say at his political poker game;
- whenever was bothered, take hostage innocent citizens of any country he sees fit and anywhere he likes, hijack ships, mine one or two at ports or at sea or send a couple of missiles to any country he wishes just to say, leave me alone, like a maniac;
- have enough uranium stockpiled with a-moment-ready-to-reach the bomb-level-enrichment as well as ballistic missiles capabilities to deliver it; in case he was bothered again!
- For all of that he has not only put on his poker table the wellbeing of the people of Iran and the national interest of their country but also the peace and security of the region and wider international community.
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