A week ago there was rockets attack close to the Erbil international airport in northern Iraq where U.S. forces are based. It followed by a more direct attack on the US base in Iraq yesterday.
The first attack killed one US contractor and wounding at least eight others, Iraqi security and coalition officials said. A little-known Shiite group, self-declared the Guardian of Blood Brigade, claimed responsibility for the attack.
Sounds familiar? Yes, Shiite Caliphate in Tehran moves to test President Biden's resolve right after his cronies had a military drill with Russia on 14 February.
Something that the Caliphate could not even imagine doing during the terms former president Trump was in the office. That was the case even after the termination of general Qasem Soleimani after which the Caliphate was extremely cautious not to annoy former President Trump. He warned the Caliphate against any such adventure. The Caliphate was then caved in with only hot air released on every opportunity. That must surely tell President Biden one or two things about the Caliphate.
It must further tell President Biden somethings about the JCPOA his boss signed with the Caliphate State--not Iran--in 2015 and the new time the Middle East experiencing.
During former President Trump terms, the Caliphate was not, and remains the same, in a position to gamble, or even bluff at all, at his political poker game with the US. He was vulnerable within Iran to the extent that he was certainly not able to mass kill Iranians again on streets of the Iranian cities as he did in 2019. So was he considerably weaker around the region and internationally. He had no money as a result of the US sanctions and was essentially experiencing his fateful moment facing the people of Iran whose back is breaking under the economic bankruptcy of the Caliphate's State. Nor was he for the same reason in a position to support his proxy terrorists around the region or beyond. He was therefore extremely careful not to give former President Trump an excuse to respond to his mischiefs militarily. He was contemplating to rush to the negotiating table, he was essentially at the same crossroad that he was in 2015, with former President Trump--on his terms of course. But it was only logical for him to give the US election a chance to deliver him a respite--a bad poker player perhaps. The Caliphate thought it did.
Now, there should not be a surprise for the Caliphate to carefully attack, no matter how and whom he instructs, US' interests around the region with limited damages and causalities. He sees himself a better poker player than President Biden. He certainly thinks that he knows President Biden hand and takes him being not as good player as his predecessor was. That is probably the reason behind a second attack came only days after the attack on Erbil international airport.
But nonetheless, and in light of the fact that this second attack came about only after " Nato announced it would scale up its mission in Iraq from 500 personnel to 4,000, in order to battle the remnants of the Islamic State group", it seems the Caliphate got it totally wrong--Surely a promising sign for President Biden's capability to play poker. It appears President Biden has different cards in his hand to amaze the Caliphate at the table after all--a readable proof that the US invented poker, political or otherwise.
It would then be a safe guess that the Caliphate will accept the US terms, without sanctions removed first as the Caliphate demands, and reverses his breaches of the JCPOA for the US to come to the negotiating table. Because the only language he understands is force. President Biden would probably award his moves by easing some sanctions in a calculated manner.
In any event, the Caliphate would be placed between rocks and hard place--where he is now.
President Biden and his European Counterparts displayed some shrewdness against a harried Caliphate. Former Secretory of State Pompeo should have a little more faith in the new administration after all.
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