Ayatollahs Gamble in Putin's Casino and 2023 Surprises

2023 is full of surprises for the Ayatollahs and their IRRGC (the Republic Revolutionary Guards Corps) cronies 

For the Ayatollahs' regime in Tehran, going into field playing in Putin's team against Ukraine was their last mischief the US and its Western allies could tolerate. But they are not quite there yet.

We have a saying in Iran which reads: One does not wrap one's head which does not ache. I guess the US and its Western allies' head is not ache yet!

But the question is when?

Ayatollahs and their cronies in the IRRGC have been under immense pressure for their uranium enrichment, other suspicious nuclear activities, their JCPOA negotiation with the West and ballistic missiles program as well as their destabilizing role in and around the Middle East and beyond to name a few. Having all these existing challenges plus the daily domestic protests by the people of Iran on streets of Iranian cities for over five months now, possibly forced the Ayatollahs in Tehran to think--mistakenly and out of desperation--that they had left with no choice but to choose Russia, Putin, as their best chance of survival in their struggle against the West and domestically against the people of Iran. It is now proven that they were mistaken. 

Putin himself has made a serious--fatal to his legacy--miscalculated move by invading Ukraine for which he now looks desperately to find a way out, since the alternative for him, Russia, and the rest of the world for that matter, would be catastrophic. Even Putin knows that! For the Ayatollahs, however, to joining him in his dangerous adventure was their biggest mistake ever.  They put themselves--perhaps not only politically but physically too--on the Putin's gambling table. But the danger and risk they will bring upon Iran, the country, and her people are even more. After all a dictator's life and his cronies do not have such value in comparison with the value of a country, her people and their national interest.

 Look at, for example, Gazafi or Saddam Hussein fates. I am not to be understood that I am for military intervention in Iran. But when a dictator and a bunch of his cronies tie their political and physical lives to a country, her people and resources--illegitimately--and put all on the gambling table of another dictator like Putin, the West, US and its European allies, may leave with no option but to deal with the problem at hand. As the West has demonstrated so far, it is determined to ensure Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine at all costs; it would not be hard to imagine that that is also the case if the catastrophic one forced upon them. If we rule that option out, that leaves the dictator of Iran, and the rest of Ayatollahs, and his cronies in Tehran face legitimacy crisis domestically in one hand, and a more determined West, one the other, to hit a few birds with only one stone. 

 Nancy Pelosi, the US House Speaker, was correct when she said, as her plane landed in Taiwan, United State wants to make it "unequivocally clear" that the US would "not abandon" the democratically governed Island. Her action, landing her plane in Taiwan against all China shouting and threats, and comments were not directed at China alone; it was a public announcement to the world. Had she not done that, there would not have been a surprise to see China repeats in Taiwan what Putin did to Ukraine. 

What that translates for the little dictator of Iran, and other Ayatollahs in Tehran, and his IRRGC cronies is a short life expectancy. Both the West and the people of Iran are very well aware of the Ayatollahs' untenable position. More recent sanctions imposed by the US, both on government bodies as well as individual human rights violators, manifest the very bad analysis the Tehran's little dictator and his ANORS have had about jumping on the Puttin's gambling table. That played nicely for the West, US and allies, in their wider regional and international geopolitical battle against the little dictator in Tehran and his Shiite terrorists organisations and arms around the Middle East and elsewhere. The people of Iran, on the other hand, exert more and more pressure on the despotic regime by daily protests and chanting "death to Khamenei" "down with the Islamic Republic". People of Iran have been protesting on streets for over five months now. They demand for the theocratic regime to put to the test its legitimacy as the ruler of the country in a free referendum. That domestic challenge combined with Ayatollahs' alliance with Putin against Ukraine make them the second enemy of democratic world. That is what Nancy Pelosi was referring to when she said in Taiwan, United States does not abandoned democracies in general. Let's hope they stand by their words and at the same time hear clearly what the people of Iran want. 

Now that Putin left with his only option to escalate Ukraine war to nuclear in which the Western world, US, NATO, would be a party. That is a bit farfetched, even for a poker player like Putin. But the Ayatollahs in Tehran are looking to have unprecedented surprises in 2023.