RESHAPING OF THE MIDDLE EAST

 On October 7th of this year, HAMAS, a recognised terrorist organization, carried out an attack in Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1300 Israelis and individuals of other nationalities. Additionally, the took hundreds hostages.

In response, Israel has launched a relentless retaliation, striking Gaza and the group without showing any mercy.

We've been inundated with news coverage of the developments since. However, I've observed that no one has posed a straightforward question: Why did HAMAS choose this particular moment to launch an attack on Israel?

Given that the Islamic Republic of Iran is widely recognised as the primary financial, weaponry, and training supporter of HAMAS, providing an annual sum of $100 million, it would not be unreasonable to focus attention on Tehran when considering the timing of the attack.

Israel has been actively pursuing a policy of normalising relations with Arab nations in the Middle East, while simultaneously drawing closer to Iran's borders in recent times. Tehran, consistently expressing concern, has cautioned its northern neighbors that it does not tolerate Israel's proximity to its borders.

Regarding Israel's relations with Arab nations, negotiations were underway with Saudi Arabia, a key player in the Arab world and the Middle East. This marked a significant step toward the normalisation of diplomatic ties. It is highly likely that this development heightened pressure on Tehran. In conjunction with other pressing concerns the Mullahs in Tehran may have harbored, such as their precarious position with the Iranian population and the emergence of a formidable opposition leader, Mr. Reza Pahlavi, outside Iran, the cumulative effect of these pressures may have pushed Tehran into a perceived lose-lose situation, intensifying their sense of unease.

In April of this year, Mr. Reza Pahlavi and his wife were distinguished guests of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with their wives and Israel's Intelligence and Defense Ministers. During this meeting, Netanyahu and his ministers emphatically conveyed, and publicly emphasised, that the countdown to the downfall of the Mullah's regime in Tehran was rapidly accelerating.

Moreover, the Mullahs in Tehran engage in nuclear activities, approaching a level dangerously close to weapons-grade enrichment, as well as pursuing ballistic missile programs. These actions not only evoke concerns within the Middle East but also pose a threat to international peace and security.

The events described above led, in my view, to Tehran's response six months later through its HAMAS proxies, who are notably well-funded. They attacked Israel, resulting in the killing of innocent people and the taking hostage of hundreds more. Ostensibly, this was done with the hope of deterring Israel from entering GAZA in the manner it has before. However, Tehran and HAMAS miscalculated the magnitude of Israel's response. They attempted to sway public opinion by inflating the number of civilians reportedly killed or displaced by Israeli actions.

In recent events, the United States, the European Union, and NATO are all prepared for any potential contingencies arising from the Mullahs in Tehran seeking support from their other proxies, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen and others, in a desperate attempt to deter threats and ensure their survival. It's important to recognise the dynamics of the Middle East and understand the limited lifespan of a Shiite theocratic regime within the region, including its eventual expiration date.

More to come...