New President Trump's Administration and the Ayatollah's False Hope

A STRATEGIC MISTAKE BY THE AYATOLLAH AND CRONIES: A REGIME IN TURMOIL

The Ayatollah's tactic of replacing the conservative team of the late President Raisi, who possessed only a primary school education, with his so-called reformist team to push for the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is likely to collide with Trump's unwavering wall.

The recent destruction of Hamas in Gaza, the dismantling of Lebanese Hezbollah, and the toppling of Assad’s regime in Syria have left the Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic regime in an unprecedentedly shaky position. These developments have not only shaken Iran’s standing in the region but also exposed the Ayatollah's regime to increasing pressure from the international community, spearheaded by the United States under former, and will be, President Trump’s legacy, and amplified by mounting discontent among the Iranian people.

Trump and his administration were fully aware of the Ayatollah’s weakened stance, a position that has only deteriorated further with recent regional and global developments. Should any future negotiations take place, the terms will likely be dictated to Iran’s representatives, including individuals like Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, and Javad Zarif, with little room for bargaining. Even then, such negotiations may not be enough to save the Ayatollah, his cronies, or their successors from the eventual collapse of their so-called Islamic Republic. Photo: (REUTERS/Karam al-Masri)

NEGOTIATING FOR SURVIVAL: THE TYRANNICAL REGIME IN DESPERATION

The Islamic Republic’s leadership, now cornered and desperate, finds itself yet again a potential engaging in negotiations with the United States and the three major European powers—the UK, France, and Germany—over its nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile programs, and, perhaps most critically, the "spirit" of such agreements. This includes its longstanding support for regional and international terrorism.

These discussions focus not only on the regime’s pursuit of weapons-grade uranium enrichment and the development of ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear payloads but also on broader concerns regarding regional and international security and stability. The Ayatollah’s regime faces mounting pressure to address its destabilizing role, from funding proxy militias to perpetuating conflict in the Middle East and beyond, which increasingly isolates it on the global stage. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP

This also extends to the Islamic Republic's role as a key ally in Putin's team against Ukraine and its continued oppression of the Iranian people's aspirations for freedom and change. By aligning closely with Putin, the Ayatollah has committed a significant strategic miscalculation.

Now, with signs of a potential compromise between Putin and Trump, with European countries understandably seeking a resolution as well, the Ayatollah finds himself increasingly isolated. Should such an agreement materialise, the Islamic Republic risks being left stranded—its regime hanging precariously in the middle of Iran, where the Iranian people continue their determined fight to reclaim their country and their sovereign rights from 45 years of theocratic tyranny.

This misstep highlights the fragility of the regime’s position and the growing pressure from both external and internal forces. The Ayatollah's gamble to align with a faltering Putin has only intensified the demands for liberation within Iran, setting the stage for a pivotal moment in the nation's modern history.

These negotiations would be a continuation of numerous failed attempts that date back to President Obama’s era and intensified under Trump, whose administration imposed crippling sanctions under the "maximum pressure" campaign. Despite years of diplomatic back-and-forth, the nature of these talks remains unchanged: they are not negotiations on behalf of Iran as a nation and its people but rather a desperate attempt by the Ayatollah and his inner circle to ensure their survival.

Since the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, both international and Iranian media have often framed these negotiations as “Iran negotiating with the West.” However, this portrayal misses the mark. The truth is far more complex. Iran, a nation with a proud history and a population yearning for freedom, is not truly represented in these talks. Instead, the participants are unelected representatives of a tyrannical regime, handpicked by the Ayatollah, who are primarily focused on preserving their own grip on power rather than securing the nation's prosperity or the well-being of its people. These negotiations, therefore, are not a dialogue between two sovereign states but rather a desperate attempt by the regime to ensure its survival at the expense of the Iranian population’s rights and aspirations.

A NEGOTIATION VOID OF NATIONAL INTERESTS

This misrepresentation fundamentally alters the nature of the negotiations. Rather than serving the people of Iran or protecting their national interests, the regime has used these talks to buy time and protect its power. In doing so, it has allowed international powers, including those in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council, such as Russia and China, to exploit the situation for their own geopolitical gains.

The concept of the "spirit" of the negotiations—a term frequently used during these discussions—has been nothing more than a façade. The regime’s actual objective has always been to preserve its grip on power, even at the cost of further isolating Iran on the global stage and devastating its economy.

THE ENDGAME: REGIME SURVIVAL IN DOUBT

The regime’s desperate position is now clearer than ever, both to its adversaries in the West and to the Iranian people themselves. The fall of its regional proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad’s Syria—has stripped the regime of much of its influence and credibility. Meanwhile, Iranians continue to rise in defiance, demanding freedom and an end to the regime’s reign of terror.

The question now is not whether the Ayatollahs will fall but when and how. The United States and its allies are unlikely to accept any deal that allows the regime to continue its nuclear ambitions or maintain its regional destabilisation efforts. Likewise, the Iranian people will not tolerate a future in which the regime and its cronies remain in power under the guise of reform or negotiation.

The Islamic Republic is negotiating from a position of weakness, with little left to offer other than empty promises. The world, led by the United States, appears poised to ensure that this is the regime’s last act, and the Iranian people are closer than ever to reclaiming their country from the clutches of tyranny.