A nervous Ayatollah and the Inauguration of President-Elect Trump

The Islamic Republic nervously awaits the inauguration of President-elect Trump on January 20, 2025. The Ayatollah has all rights to be nervous. 

With the recent collapse of Assad's regime in Syria and the notable withdrawal of Russian military equipment and troops without resistance, combined with comments and signals from Putin and the Kremlin, it appears that President-elect Trump and Putin have held several discussions ahead of Trump's inauguration. It seems plausible that they have reached informal agreements on critical issues, including the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran and the Ayatollah's regime.

This calculated move aligns with a broader geopolitical recalibration, potentially hinting at a tacit understanding between Moscow and the incoming U.S. administration.

Such an understanding would likely encompass key areas of mutual interest, including resolving the Ukraine conflict and reshaping the Middle East's power dynamics. Putin's actions, which appear to de-escalate Russia's direct involvement in Syria, may serve as a goodwill gesture, signaling Moscow's willingness to cooperate on broader regional issues—particularly the containment--and much more I would say--of the Ayatollah's regime in Iran.

The Kremlin’s recent diplomatic maneuvers, coupled with its restrained stance on escalating tensions, further reinforce the notion of a strategic pivot. By stepping back from certain regional entanglements, Putin may be positioning Russia to extract concessions or secure its own interests in negotiations over Ukraine while simultaneously allowing the U.S. and its allies to focus on dismantling Iran’s destabilising influence in the Middle East.

If these signals indeed reflect an understanding between Trump and Putin, the implications are significant. Such a collaboration could accelerate the downfall of Tehran’s proxies and place unprecedented pressure on the Ayatollah’s regime, further isolating it both regionally and internationally--and more importantly to me and my people domestically. This would mark a turning point, not only for U.S.-Russia relations but also for the broader stability of the Middle East.

As previously highlighted, the West, spearheaded by the United States and its allies, had no alternative but to halt Putin’s aggression in Ukraine at all costs—and they have managed to do so thus far. However, this success has necessitated another pivotal and challenging decision: addressing the Ayatollah and his network of proxies in the Middle East. This strategic realignment began around October of last year, specifically on October 7. We covered it here. 

With the Ayatollah's proxies falling one by one—leaving only the Houthis and Iraqi Shia militias—the West, including the U.S., NATO, and Israel, is now actively addressing the Houthi threat. Meanwhile, Iraq's Shia militias, seemingly on orders from Tehran and under a politically shrewd Iraqi government, have so far refrained from action, choosing instead to watch the developments unfold. They are acutely aware of the consequences they could face if they intervene.

In this precarious scenario, Tehran appears to be clinging to misplaced hope—believing that a public-relations approach, led by a smiling former foreign minister and a newly appointed one, could navigate them out of this unprecedented crisis. However, President-elect Trump, his incoming administration, and Israel seem far too astute to squander what Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has called a "historic opportunity." This moment is seen as one that could benefit all involved parties, most notably the people of Iran, who yearn for liberation and a brighter future for their nation.

That thought brings a joyful smile to my face, knowing it could also bring a glimmer of hope and joy to the people of my country. For over four decades, they have endured unimaginable suffering under a theocratic tyranny that has stifled their freedoms and aspirations. Every step toward the regime’s weakening is a step closer to liberation for those who have been silenced, oppressed, and denied their right to live with dignity and self-determination. It is a smile born out of solidarity with their resilience and the possibility of reclaiming their future.