Ayatollah Nervously Counting Days

As the inauguration of President-elect Trump approaches, rhetoric intensifies from all corners of Iran, including the IRGC, Basij, paramilitary groups, and members of the so-called parliament.

On Friday, 10 January, they conducted their largest in recent history military and paramilitary Basij drill to date in Tehran.

General Salami, the head of the IRGC, stated on Iranian state television: "Today, the American statesmen, whether Democrats or Republicans, must understand that confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran is an unforgivable mistake. They need to realize that they can no longer maintain a superior hegemony on the international stage."

They displayed their missile arsenals in underground tunnels as a show of strength. However, they appear increasingly concerned about their future, yet they persist in making noise without taking any meaningful action. The question remains: why? What are they so afraid of?

The answer is not a difficult one: they are nervous about the combined military might of the United States, Israel, and NATO. It was only last year when NATO’s Secretary-General issued a direct warning about their activities, understandably so, given that the Ayatollah and his cronies have made themselves clear enemies of the West by aligning with Putin's team against Ukraine.

That is perhaps why they repeatedly issue threats, including plans to execute the so-called "Sadiq 3," a codename for their proposed missile attacks on Israel—following their earlier "Sadiq 2" strikes and the Israel's response. However, rather than instilling fear or showcasing strength, these threats reveal their desperation and crumbling credibility.

Far from portraying themselves as a formidable authority, they increasingly resemble a frightened terrorist organisation, akin to an infamous paramilitary group known for suppressing dissent, blinding protesters, torturing captives, and killing those who dare to speak out among the Iranian people.

There may also be another, more calculated reason behind their rhetoric without action. It could be their assessment that any potential attacks or further devastating international sanctions against the Ayatollah’s regime in Tehran might damage or destroy some military, missiles and/or nuclear facilities, or infrastructure targets but ultimately fail to bring down the regime. They may believe that as long as they remain in power, the impact would be manageable. Furthermore, they would still have access to the country’s resources to continue their ventures in the U.S. and the West’s Middle East backyard, like a wounded but dangerous snake!

One would, however, like to think that the U.S. and its Western allies, including Israel, are thoroughly reviewing all their contingencies before taking any action.

The people of Iran, on the other hand, have been closely monitoring developments in the region, particularly following the downfall of Assad in Syria. They vehemently believe their own despot in Tehran may be next in line, a prospect that has caused fear among the Ayatollah and his IRGC cronies, along with their affiliated Basij forces and foreign mercenaries, primarily Shiite proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Afghanistan.

Reports indicate that tens of thousands of paramilitary forces participated in Friday’s drill, with many being Afghan recruits. The drill was seemingly orchestrated to intimidate the people of Iran, showcasing a desperate attempt by the regime to maintain control through fear.

Now, the real question is not if this tyrannical regime in Tehran will fall, but rather how soon it will follow in the footsteps of its regional predecessors/proxies.