President Trump’s Ultimatum to the Ayatollah: A Defining Moment for Iran

President Trump has given the Ayatollah and his inner circle a two-month deadline to submit to his demands.

For the Ayatollah and his cronies, this ultimatum presents a grim reality with little to no viable options. As an Iranian-Australian deeply concerned about the human, democratic, and citizenship rights of my people—who are the sovereign owners of their country and its resources—the outcome itself is secondary. The key issue is the inevitable reckoning for a regime that has long oppressed its citizens. However, from the perspective of Iran’s ruling elite, the choice before them is a "death-death" scenario.

Scenario One: Submission to Trump’s Demands

Should the Ayatollah accept President Trump’s demands, this would not be a negotiation in the traditional sense but a total surrender. It would signal the beginning of a new Iran—one where political prisoners and prisoners of conscience must be released, and the persecution of those demanding basic rights is finally brought to an end. The people would push for a referendum on Iran’s constitution, potentially challenging the very foundation of the Islamic Republic, including the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), which underpins the Ayatollah’s rule.

Beyond human and democratic rights, this would also mean reclaiming the fundamental citizenship rights of the Iranian people—their rightful sovereignty over their country and its vast resources, which have long been exploited by an unelected elite. The end of the Islamic Republic, as it has existed for the past 45 years, would become an inevitable reality.

The regime may try to stall, hoping to outlast Trump’s presidency, but this is a grave miscalculation. The new generation of Iranians is relentless in its pursuit of change. Even if the Ayatollah believes he can wait out Trump’s term, he cannot withstand the unstoppable force of the Iranian people's demands for freedom. The possibility of a U.S. embassy reopening in Tehran is no longer a far-fetched idea—it is on the horizon.

Scenario Two: Defiance and Escalation

The alternative—rejecting Trump's demands and resorting to provocation—carries its own dire consequences. The Ayatollah’s strategy appears to be mobilizing the remnants of Iran’s proxy forces, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq, like Hashd al-Shaabi. However, this approach is already being met with forceful responses from the United States, its Western allies, and Israel.

At the same time, the regime would face a new wave of crippling sanctions—perhaps harsher than anything seen before. The Iranian economy is already collapsing, with the national currency plunging to record lows, nearing one million rials per U.S. dollar. Inflation has decimated the purchasing power of tens of millions of Iranians, making even basic necessities like meat and chicken unaffordable.

During the Persian New Year celebrations, people across the country chanted, "Ta akhnod kafan nashavad, in vatan vatan nashavad"—"Until we bury the mullahs, our country will never be the homeland we deserve." This powerful declaration encapsulates the growing realization that the Iranian people, as the rightful sovereigns of their nation, must reclaim their homeland from the grip of an unelected dictatorship.

With every passing day, the Ayatollah's grip on power weakens. Whether by submission or defiance, the fall of the Islamic Republic seems inevitable—the only question is how much more suffering the Iranian people will endure before that day comes.