What Comes Next for the Ayatollah?

Amid the bombings and global commentary from pundits and power brokers on the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the elephant in the room remains ignored — Iran’s illegitimate constitution, and more importantly, her silenced people.

Expert commentary and analysis continue to revolve around a flawed premise: that the Islamic Republic, as it has existed for the past 46 years, will endure — with clerics merely rotating power among themselves, ruling under the same unlawful and illegitimate constitution, once again without the consent or participation of the Iranian people.

In light of the recent 12-day conflict initiated by Israel against the Ayatollah’s regime in Iran—with the United States also targeting three major nuclear sites—experts have pointed out that the Ayatollah and his inner circle’s decades-long investment in proxy groups across the Middle East has largely failed to yield the intended outcomes. This naturally prompts a question: Were Israel and Western powers inattentive or ineffective during this time? The evidence suggests otherwise. It seems the Ayatollah and his allies either underestimated or failed to grasp the extent to which their multi-billion-dollar operations were under constant surveillance by Israel and the West. As many experts now acknowledge, these immense expenditures have ultimately been in vain.

Yet, in drawing these conclusions, commentators have overlooked the true elephant in the room: the Iranian people—and the illegitimacy of the country’s constitution. Even more troubling, the situation reveals that the Ayatollahs were effectively given a free hand to suppress the people of Iran for far too long, denying them their fundamental human and civil rights without consequence.

That was only possible because the Ayatollahs systematically denied the Iranian people any genuine opposition within the country. The only so-called alternative permitted was the ‘reformist’ camp—engineered by the regime itself nearly 30 years ago. This group was deliberately designed not to challenge the system’s foundations, but to pacify public unrest and give people the illusion of change. It dangled the promise of reform, fueling hope that Iran might gradually return to its people and that they could reclaim their dignity as the rightful owners of their destiny and homeland. But in truth, it was always a carefully crafted safety valve—never a path to meaningful transformation.

This has always been the case because the Constitution of the Islamic Republic was — and remains — untouchable. It is a proven illegitimate document, imposed without the free and informed consent of the people. Since its inception, it has placed any possibility of change — including referendums, amendments, or public approval — entirely in the hands of the Supreme Leader himself and a tightly controlled circle of his appointed cronies, see ss110, 177 of the Constitution. The very framework of the system was designed to block reform and protect power, not to reflect the will of the people.

So what now? Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, along with other officials, continues to invoke the people of Iran and their right to freedom—often justifying targeted strikes on the oppressive regime’s infrastructure as a way to support and facilitate an eventual uprising against the Ayatollah and his authoritarian system. Yet this rhetoric overlooks a fundamental reality: the Iranian people lack any real, viable alternative within the country. There is no organised opposition, no free political movement, and no legal path to change. This vacuum—deliberately engineered and maintained by the regime—leaves the people without the tools or leadership to rise, even if the regime’s military and security pillars are weakened.

Now the question is: what comes next?

Does this mean the Ayatollah and his regime will once again be left to orchestrate a carefully engineered succession—one that not only replaces the Ayatollah himself but also preserves the very constitution that has underpinned this theocratic system for the past 46 years? The answer must be a resounding NO.

The international campaign—both political and moral—must not allow another theocratic regime to rise and continue denying the Iranian people their fundamental rights and rightful ownership of their country.

There are viable paths to ensure that this time, the will of the people is neither ignored nor hijacked. The Middle East—and indeed the rest of the world—can no longer afford to tolerate a regime that has, for decades, committed the most egregious violations of human rights, looted national resources, and taken an entire population hostage in the name of religion and God.