A message to the new tenant of the Oval Office
President-elect Biden is set to move into the Oval Office in less than 14 days. One of the hot, if not the hottest, issues his administration is facing would be, without doubt, how to deal with the Ayatollahs in Tehran over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the JCPOA). The very plan his previous boss, President Obama, agreed upon when he was his Vice President. President Trump, however, called the agreement "Worst, horrible, laughable", before he withdrew the US from it in 2018.
It is no secret that the withdrawal from the JCPOA ensued the US most stringent sanctions to date against the Ayatollahs in Tehran, one would say. By the growing pressures on the regime in Tehran, or as I would say their cronies in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Ayatollahs and their generals moved to increase their capacity both in production of uranium and the enrichment level under the JCPOA.
Now, the real question the Biden administration needs to ask is that who is suffering more under this equation? Is it the Ayatollahs regime in Tehran choking from the sanctions and been denied billions of dollars oil and gas revenue? Or is it the US and its Western allies together risking for the Ayatollahs’ generals reaching the point of no return in their dangerous race to the Big Bomb and ballistic missiles?
The Trump administration provided a logical and plausible answer to that question. Both the so-called reformists led by president Hassan Rohani and the conservatives led by the so-called Supreme Leader have been feeling the pressure from Trump’s doing to the point they all were counting days for him to leave the Oval Office. Their oil revenue dropped to a devastating low of 100,000 barrel a day in July 2019 from 2.5 million barrels in the previous year in April 2018, prior to president Trump took the US out of the JCPOA agreement. That has certainly removed sleep from the eyes of both the reformists and conservatives in Tehran. Bear in mind that the government of president Hassan Rohani and the conservatives are all on board and the crew of the same ship, the Islamic Republic – it is imperative to remember that. Only difference is that Hassan Rohani and his charming Foreign Minister (Jawad Zarif) have happened to be on the upper-deck and behind the wheel in the past seven years, whilst the conservatives are purportedly under the deck and in the engine room!
There are now millions of Iranians who are unable to buy meat or chicken during a month. There are further reports that the price of bread is also hiked. This is particularly important as there is a well-known Iranian saying which reads, “bread is the last thing you need to stay alive”. Imagine millions of Iranian cannot afford to buy bread! That is what the crew is facing when president-elect Biden comes to the Oval Office. They have been praying for president-elect Biden to come!
In one hand, the sanctions put the crew in front of millions of hungry Iranians on streets. On the other, the crew's coffer depleted of money put them on a very difficult position against their proxy terrorist organizations, and these days organized crime assassins.
So that plausible answer the Trump’s administration provided then begs a further question of why the crew of the Islamic Republic ship is nervously counting days for president Trump to leave the Oval Office? That is a serious and real question before president-elect Biden and his administration.
Was it because the crew were so confident and secure to be able to reach the Big Bomb and means to deliver it under the sanctions in a nearly collapsed economy? Or was it because they were terrified and panicked that they would not be able to survive the ocean of millions hungry Iranians on the streets -- that is to be able to repeat the mass killing of 2019.
Answer to that question reflects on their proxies’ behavior in the neighboring countries. They are extra cautious not to give president Trump any excuse because they are terrified, but still bluffing to fight with a glooming picture. Yes, that is what it is; only a bluff. The good thing, I would say, is that the crew are not good poker players but president-elect Biden and his Vice President Harris should be. The crew neither have the money to spend on their proxies around the region nor the money to cover their expenses in running the country. They had, however, a few temporary bandages so far. They reached into the pockets of the Iranian people by way of increasing the currency exchange rate or encourage the people to invest in the Iranian stock exchange in an almost collapsed economy. Millions of Iranians lost thousands of billions of Iranian currencies equal to billions of dollars over the past two years. They are angry and desperate!
And an absolute majority of the people of Iran prayed for Trump to win.
President-elect Biden should find the equation a simple one which does not require a math's genius to solve! He may also find that one stone can hit more than two birds in the Middle East and elsewhere.
So that plausible answer the Trump’s administration provided then begs a further question of why the crew of the Islamic Republic ship is nervously counting days for president Trump to leave the Oval Office? That is a serious and real question before president-elect Biden and his administration.
Was it because the crew were so confident and secure to be able to reach the Big Bomb and means to deliver it under the sanctions in a nearly collapsed economy? Or was it because they were terrified and panicked that they would not be able to survive the ocean of millions hungry Iranians on the streets -- that is to be able to repeat the mass killing of 2019.
Answer to that question reflects on their proxies’ behavior in the neighboring countries. They are extra cautious not to give president Trump any excuse because they are terrified, but still bluffing to fight with a glooming picture. Yes, that is what it is; only a bluff. The good thing, I would say, is that the crew are not good poker players but president-elect Biden and his Vice President Harris should be. The crew neither have the money to spend on their proxies around the region nor the money to cover their expenses in running the country. They had, however, a few temporary bandages so far. They reached into the pockets of the Iranian people by way of increasing the currency exchange rate or encourage the people to invest in the Iranian stock exchange in an almost collapsed economy. Millions of Iranians lost thousands of billions of Iranian currencies equal to billions of dollars over the past two years. They are angry and desperate!
And an absolute majority of the people of Iran prayed for Trump to win.
President-elect Biden should find the equation a simple one which does not require a math's genius to solve! He may also find that one stone can hit more than two birds in the Middle East and elsewhere.
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